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September 2017
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Atlantic Tropical Storm Activity
...JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Jose was located near 39.5, -67.9 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Maria was located near 20.4, -69.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Latest News Feeds
BBC News - Home
BBC News - Home

North Korea: Trump signs new order to widen sanctions
The US measures will target individuals and firms, including banks, that trade with North Korea.

Hurricane 'leaves 15 dead in Dominica'
At least 15 people are dead and 20 are missing on Dominica after Hurricane Maria, the PM says.

Mexico earthquake: Race to save children under collapsed school
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Hell in a bottle: I survived an acid attack
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US police shoot deaf man 'ignoring commands'
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L'Oreal heiress Lillian Bettencourt dies at 94
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Canada MP sorry for Catherine McKenna 'climate Barbie' remark
Conservative Gerry Ritz apologised over a remark he aimed at environment minister Catherine McKenna.

VW diesel car protest: Greenpeace members climb on boat
Greenpeace said protesters would not leave the ship until Volkswagen agreed to return the cars to Germany.

Special counsel Robert Mueller seeks Trump presidency records
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Catalonia referendum: Madrid court fines organisers
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Hillary Clinton memoir What Happened sells 300,000 copies
What Happened, which tells of the 2016 US election campaign, was released on 12 September.

Ryanair plans to make pilots change holidays
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Canadian hunter fatally mistakes woman's therapy dog for wolf
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LaPresse.ca - Actualités
«Denis Coderre est déconnecté des familles», dit Valérie Plante
Québec déjà prêt à modifier ses règles sur les forages pétroliers
Aide à mourir pour les personnes inaptes: 91% des proches aidants disent oui
Québec veut de la flexibilité pour le financement des infrastructures
Des atteintes à la vie privée au système de paie Phénix
Turcot: les ingénieurs du gouvernement réclament une enquête
Montréal: l'homme gravement blessé à la tête est dans un état stable
Les militaires tenus à l'écart de La Meute
Des forages pétroliers autorisés à 150 m des maisons
Frappe de l'UPAC: un des accusés a été au coeur du projet Turcot
Chaleur exceptionnelle au Québec: une anomalie qui survient une fois au 30 ans
LaPresse.ca - International
Santé: les républicains ont échoué le «test Jimmy Kimmel»
Bosnie : les restes d'une centaine de personnes dans un charnier
Le gouvernement catalan reconnaît un coup porté à son référendum
Porto Rico «anéanti» par Maria et menacé par les inondations
L'ONU face à ses divisions sur la Corée du Nord
Un arsenal de sanctions pour décourager la Corée du Nord
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Québec «préoccupé» par les arrestations d'élus catalans
Birmanie: une foule attaque un bateau de la Croix-Rouge
Find more about Weather in Tampa, FL
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211832
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jose, located a little less than two hundred miles southeast
of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located more
than a hundred miles southeast of Grand Turk Island.

An elongated low pressure system, the remnants of Lee, is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity about midway between
the Azores and Lesser Antilles. Upper-level winds are expected to be
unfavorable for significant development during the next few days.
The low is forecast to move slowly northward over the open waters of
the central Atlantic Ocean for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
...JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Jose was located near 39.5, -67.9 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 65A
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 211733
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 65A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 67.9W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 67.9 West.  Jose is
stationary, and the system is expected to meander well offshore of
the coast of southeast New England for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Jose is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or on
Friday.

Jose is a large system.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.  A sustained wind of 38
mph (62 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently reported
at the Nantucket Airport.  An unofficial observing site in
Vineyard Haven on Martha's Vineyard recently reported a sustained
wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area through tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions during the next few days.  For more information,
please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Friday:

Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...additional 1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket...additional 2 to 4 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 65
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

000
WTNT22 KNHC 211435
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  65
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  68.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 180SE 180SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  68.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  68.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.5N  68.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.6N  68.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.5N  69.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.4N  69.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 39.1N  68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N  68.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 65
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

000
WTNT42 KNHC 211437
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Satellite and radar data suggest that Jose is gradually spinning
down.  The convective bands are relatively shallow, except over the
western quadrants where the cloud tops are a bit colder.  The
outer-most bands are very near the offshore islands of southeastern
New England, where there have been reports of tropical-storm-force
winds, especially in gusts.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
investigated Jose earlier this morning, and a combination of the
flight-level winds, SFMR observations, and dropsonde data support
holding the initial intensity at 50 kt.

The intensity forecast appears straightforward.  Cool waters, dry
air, and an expected increase in wind shear should cause Jose to
steadily weaken and lead to post-tropical transition within the
next 24 hours.  The post-tropical system is predicted to degenerate
into a trough by day 4, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models.
The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one,
and it lies close to the consensus models.

As previously predicted, Jose has become stationary.  Since the
storm is expected to remain in weak steering currents for the next
few days, Jose is forecast to meander off the coast of southeastern
New England until it dissipates.  This track prediction is not too
different from the previous one, and it lies near the middle of the
guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are
expected to continue through tonight.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next few days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 39.6N  68.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 39.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 39.6N  68.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/0000Z 39.5N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  23/1200Z 39.4N  69.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  24/1200Z 39.1N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 65
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

000
FONT12 KNHC 211436
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  65             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017               
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CONCORD NH     34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
BOSTON MA      34  5   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 14   6(20)   4(24)   1(25)   3(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 23   9(32)   4(36)   2(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  8   5(13)   3(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  3   2( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  6   4(10)   4(14)   1(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ALBANY NY      34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  8   6(14)   4(18)   1(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
ISLIP NY       34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
Tropical Storm Jose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 17:37:02 GMT

Tropical Storm Jose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:22:27 GMT

Local Statement for Boston, MA
Issued at 1114 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Maria was located near 20.4, -69.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 22A
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

000
WTNT35 KNHC 211734
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 69.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Andres/Boca Chica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 69.4 West.  Maria is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion
continuing through early Saturday.  On the forecast track, Maria's
eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic today, and then move near or just east of the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight and on
Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195
km/h) with higher gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening
is possible during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).  A wind gust to 49 mph (79 km/h) was recently
reported at Santiago de Los Caballeros in the Dominican Republic.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 960 mb
(28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across
portions of the Dominican Republic.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas later today, with hurricane conditions
expected tonight or early Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday.

Strong gusty winds are still possible today over portions of Puerto
Rico, especially in heavier rainbands that are moving over the
island.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total
amounts 35 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches.
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and
Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to
8 inches.
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches.

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.  These swells will
reach the remainder of the Bahamas today and tonight and should
reach portions of the United States southeastern coast on Friday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 22
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

000
WTNT25 KNHC 211447
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WEST OF ANDRES/BOCA CHICA.  THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ISLA
SAONA TO CABO ENGANO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO ANDRES/BOCA CHICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  69.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE  75SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  69.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  68.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N  69.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N  70.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N  71.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N  71.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N  72.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 33.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N  69.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 22
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

000
WTNT45 KNHC 211448
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Maria is maintaining a large, 40 nm wide eye, and overall, the
hurricane's satellite presentation has not changed since the
previous advisory.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the system has not measured flight-level winds as
high as last evening's mission, and the central pressure has
remained relatively steady.  Although there were higher SFMR winds
measured, especially to the northeast of the center, the flight
meteorologist reported that the instrument appears to be running
5-10 kt too high.  Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 100
kt.

Maria appears to be moving over the remnant cold wake leftover from
Hurricane Irma, but it should begin to move over an area of higher
oceanic heat content during the next 24 hours or so.  Therefore,
some strengthening is still forecast, although it is not especially
aggressive given what the latest intensity guidance is showing.
Gradual weakening is likely from 48 hours onward due to some
increase in southwesterly shear, as well as lower oceanic heat
content over the western Atlantic.  Still, Maria is expected to
remain a hurricane for the next 5 days.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt.  Maria will be
moving between a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda and a
broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into
the northern Gulf of Mexico.  As a result, Maria is expected to
turn gradually north-northwestward to north-northeastward by the
end of the forecast period, keeping it over the waters of the
western Atlantic after moving by the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the southeastern Bahamas.  The track models continue to be tightly
clustered, and the updated NHC track forecast lies right along the
previous forecast, down the middle of the guidance envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flood emergencies continue in portions of Puerto Rico due
to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.
Catastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should
continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these
life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 20.2N  69.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 21.0N  69.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 22.2N  70.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 23.6N  71.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 25.1N  71.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 28.2N  72.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 30.5N  71.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 33.0N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

000
FONT15 KNHC 211448
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   5( 5)  11(16)  13(29)   6(35)   1(36)   X(36)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  3  26(29)  23(52)   4(56)   1(57)   1(58)   X(58)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34 81  18(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND TURK     50 22  56(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
GRAND TURK     64  3  38(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LES CAYES      34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  3   2( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34 78   1(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
PUERTO PLATA   50  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
PUERTO PLATA   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  6   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PONCE PR       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Hurricane Maria Graphics
Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 17:36:51 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:28:46 GMT
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