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Atlantic Tropical Storm Activity
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 15 the center of Fifteen was located near 15.6, -21.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Find more about Weather in Tampa, FL
Click for weather forecast
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151729
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen, located less than 200 miles east of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Guatemala,
southeastern Mexico, and adjacent waters of the Bay of Campeche.
This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern
Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across a large
portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which
could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the
Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
by Thursday and Friday when the system is located over the western
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located less than 500 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands is producing limited shower activity. Upper-level
winds are expected to become increasingly hostile over the system,
and further development of this system is not anticipated while
the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 15 the center of Fifteen was located near 15.6, -21.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 151432
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 21.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 21.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to
pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the eastern and northern Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause flash
flooding and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur across the
eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 151432
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152019
1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  21.6W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  21.6W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  21.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.5N  22.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N  23.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N  24.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.4N  26.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N  30.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  21.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 151433
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

The depression doesn't looking very healthy compared to 24 hours ago
when tightly curved convective bands wrapped around the center. Over
the past 12 hours, the convection has devolved into an elongated
north-to-south band of stratiform deep-layer cloudiness with
embedded clusters of moderate to deep convection. The western
semicircle of the broad circulation has degraded with at least two
small low-level circulations revolving southward around the mean
center. A 1045Z partial ASCAT-A pass indicated that the low-level
center was located west of 21W longitude, so the initial position
was adjusted farther west. Intensity estimates range from T1.5/25 kt
from TAFB and the partial ASCAT pass, to 33 kt and 37 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. For now, the intensity will
be held at 30 kt, which is an average of these estimates.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/08 kt, but
this motion is of low confidence given the broad nature of the
cyclone.  Surprisingly, the models remain in quite good agreement
that the depression will move generally northwestward during the
next couple of days and pass over or just east of the northeastern
Cabo Verde Islands. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast by
72 hours and beyond due to the weak and shallow system being steered
by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track
forecast has been nudged a little to the left or west of the
previous advisory track, mainly due to the more westward initial
position, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models.

The environmental conditions are expected to remain somewhat
conducive for slight strengthening during the next 12-18 hours.
Although no longer explicitly forecast, it is still possible that
the depression could briefly become a tropical storm later tonight
if a burst of deep convection can develop and tighten up the
inner-core wind field. By late Wednesday, however, the combination
of a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier
mid-level air, and SSTs less than 26C should induce steady to rapid
weakening, resulting in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low
by 36 hours and dissipating in 72-96 hours.

Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm
before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from
this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in those islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 15.6N  21.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 16.5N  22.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 17.7N  23.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 18.5N  24.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 19.4N  26.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z 21.6N  30.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 151432
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152019               
1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
RIBIERA GRANDE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
Tropical Depression Fifteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 14:34:51 GMT

Tropical Depression Fifteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 15:24:28 GMT

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